Sea Level Rise

 Navigating New York's Future in the Face of Climate Change

By exploring the impacts of sea level rise on New York, this project aims to reveal the potential impacts of climate change on the city's infrastructure, ecosystems, economic activity, and community life. Starting with current data and projections, the project visualises changes over the coming decades, presenting a view of the city's future that is both thought-provoking and hopeful.

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Source: https://youtu.be/1ME0hmW6SLM

Why sea level matters?

In the United States, almost 30 percent of the population lives in relatively high population-density coastal areas, where sea level plays a role in flooding, shoreline erosion, and hazards from storms. Globally, 8 of the world’s 10 largest cities are near a coast, according to the U.N. Atlas of the Oceans.

In urban settings along coastlines around the world, rising seas threaten infrastructure necessary for local jobs and regional industries. Roads, bridges, subways, water supplies, oil and gas wells, power plants, sewage treatment plants, landfills—the list is practically endless—are all at risk from sea level rise.

In the natural world, rising sea level creates stress on coastal ecosystems that provide recreation, protection from storms, and habitat for fish and wildlife, including commercially valuable fisheries. As seas rise, saltwater is also contaminating freshwater aquifers, many of which sustain municipal and agricultural water supplies and natural ecosystems.

Global Sea Level Change

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of melt water from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. In 2022, global mean sea level was 101.2 millimeters (4 inches) above 1993 levels, making it the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present).The global mean water level in the ocean rose by 0.14 inches (3.6 millimeters) per year from 2006–2015, which was 2.5 times the average rate of 0.06 inches (1.4 millimeters) per year throughout most of the twentieth century. By the end of the century, global mean sea level is likely to rise at least one foot (0.3 meters) above 2000 levels, even if greenhouse gas emissions follow a relatively low pathway in coming decades.In some ocean basins, sea level has risen as much as 6-8 inches (15-20 centimeters) since the start of the satellite record. Regional differences exist because of natural variability in the strength of winds and ocean currents, which influence how much and where the deeper layers of the ocean store heat.

Temperature and Precipitation in New York

These two charts provide climate change data for New York City from 1950 to 2023. The data show that, especially since the year 2000, the annual average temperature in New York City often exceeds the historical average, reflecting a clear trend of global warming. This upward trend in temperatures is further evidenced in the annual mean temperature curve, which shows a consistent increase in temperatures over the observation period. 

Additionally, the annual rainfall bar chart reveals the total precipitation per year, displaying significant variability in annual precipitation, particularly with notable increases in some years after 2010. These data emphasize that New York City has experienced significant climate changes in both temperature and precipitation.

Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access

Interactive Sea Level Rise Risk Map: Visualising New York City's Future

Our interactive map provides a detailed visualisation of sea level rise risk in New York City, showing projections for the 2050s and 2080s based on rigorous scientific data. The map layers show potential inundation scenarios on two different time scales, helping users understand how climate change will affect sea level rise in the coming decades.

Map of sea level rise projections for the 2050s:
This layer represents the risk of sea level rise in the 2050s, derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) projections. These projections are expected to increase by 11 inches by the 2050s, based on 90% of the NPCC's projections. This data highlights areas that may face future inundation and emphasises the need for immediate planning and intervention.

Map of projected sea level rise in the 2080s:
The second layer shows the risk of sea level rise in the 2080s, incorporating the same FEMA data as well as the more severe sea level rise projected by the NPCC (up to 31 inches). This scenario provides a longer-term perspective and insight into the broader and more intense impacts of climate change on urban vulnerability.

Source: https://data.cityofnewyork.us/browse?q=sea+level

Response to sea level rise:
THE BIG U

In collaboration with New York City, The BIG U proposal was developed to protect Lower Manhattan from floodwater, storms, and sea level rising. The BIG U calls for a protective system around the low-lying topography of Manhattan beginning at West 57th Street, going down to The Battery, and then back up to East 42nd Street.

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Conclusion and Limitations

To conclude, our study highlights several key points. Sea level rise, caused by thermal expansion and melting ice, is a significant threat to coastal populations and infrastructure. Data shows that global mean sea level has been rising steadily, with a noticeable acceleration in recent decades.

Cities like New York face increased risks from storm surges, frequent flooding, and ecosystem disruption. This underscores the need for strong adaptation and mitigation strategies, such as the BIG U project.

However, our study has limitations. First, our projections rely heavily on current climate models, which cannot account for all variables and potential future changes. Second, we focused primarily on New York City, so the findings may not apply to other regions with different conditions. Third, historical data inconsistencies could affect the accuracy of long-term trends. Lastly, we did not cover a wide range of socio-economic impacts, such as community displacement and economic costs.

Further research, with localized studies and broader socio-economic analyses, would help address these limitations.

Our Team

Jie Zhou

Co-Producer
jie.zhou.23@ucl.ac.uk

Wenhao Xu

Co-Producer
wenhao.xu.23@ucl.ac.uk

Yunlong Li

Co-Producer
yunlong.li.22@ucl.ac.uk